Nonresidential Building Spending to Grow Through 2019, but Cautious Outlook for 2020

Healthy gains in the industrial and institutional building sectors have bolstered growth projections for 2019; however, the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel—consisting of leading economic forecasters—is suggesting that a broader economic downturn may be materializing over the next 12-24 months. Learn more about this Consensus Construction...

Healthy gains in the industrial and institutional building sectors have bolstered growth projections for 2019; however, the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel—consisting of leading economic forecasters—is suggesting that a broader economic downturn may be materializing over the next 12-24 months. Learn more about this Consensus Construction Forecast online.

“Though the economy has been performing very well recently, trends in business confidence scores are red flags that suggest a slowdown is likely for 2020,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “These signals may be temporary responses to negative short-term conditions, but historically they have preceded a more widespread downturn.”

Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts 2019 2020

Overall nonresidential building 4.4% 2.4%

Commercial/industrial total 3.5% 0.6%

Hotels 3.9% -0.7%

Office space 5.1% 1.2%

Retail 1.9% 0.4%

Industrial total 4.8% 2.7%

Institutional total 4.8% 2.9%

Public safety 6.8% 4.9%

Healthcare facilities 4.0% 3.6%

Education 5.5% 4.1%

Amusement / recreation 4.4% 0.6%

Religious -2.6% -1.2%

Source: www.aia.org